About 650 more prisoners due for release in England and Wales
The second of ten release dates covers sentences of 575 to 882 days; the next is 10 November.
About 650 more prisoners in England and Wales are expected to be released on 13 October, as the second of ten tranches of the progression model takes effect, the Ministry of Justice has estimated.
The date comes from regulations signed on 1 September for the Ministry of Justice by Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Jake Richards. They bring the new release rules into force on 13 October for prisoners whose sentence is longer than 574 days and shorter than 883 days. By our conversion, that is roughly 19 to 29 months. The first tranche, on 1 October, covered sentences under 575 days.
An analytical report published by the Ministry of Justice on 30 August put first-day releases in the second tranche at 650, rounded to the nearest 50. It gave 100 as the estimated number of offenders in that tranche made ineligible by the exclusions introduced for rape, certain child sex offences, unlawful killing and indecent assault.
The report calls its figures modelled estimates rather than precise numbers. Volumes could change if eligible offenders are sentenced to prison before a tranche’s first day, if some current prisoners have outstanding, additional criminal proceedings against them, or because the number of days added for bad behaviour before the final tranche in June 2027 is not yet known. It adds that the figures could be an overestimate, because some prisoners may be serving secondary offences that make them ineligible.
Who is covered
Under the progression model, offenders on standard determinate sentences will spend at least one-third of their sentence in custody, while those serving such sentences for more serious offences will serve at least half, the report states.
The model leaves out more than 18,000 prisoners on other types of sentence, among them life, indeterminate and extended determinate sentences. Sentences for offences listed in a schedule to the regulations, among them manslaughter and rape, are excluded.
The regulations cover people in custody immediately before 1 October on a sentence imposed before that date. Someone with concurrent sentences is placed by the longest; with consecutive sentences, by their combined length.
| Release date | Sentence length | Estimated first-day releases |
|---|---|---|
| 1 October 2026 | Under 575 days | 700 |
| 13 October 2026 | 575 to 882 days | 650 |
| 10 November 2026 | 883 to 1,162 days | 650 |
The last of the ten dates is 8 June 2027, for sentences longer than 4,396 days. Across all ten tranches the report estimates about 4,500 first-day releases, with 1,400 offenders made ineligible by the exclusions.
Offenders released under the model are subject to strict licence conditions and intensive supervision in the community, and may be recalled to prison if they break the rules, according to the Ministry of Justice’s guide for victims. It lists a free Victim Support helpline for people seeking support about offender release, open on weekdays except bank holidays.
